FX Economic Calendar

June 30 – July 4, 2025

Highlights:
Canada rescinded their digital services tax on tech companies in an effort to restart trade talks with the Trump administration. Trump also appears poised to resume country-specific tariffs next week for nations that fail to meet his July 9^th negotiation deadline. Despite all-time highs in the equity market, there continues to be elevated economic uncertainty as tariff policies remain inconsistent. Other factors such as a weaker dollar and muted manufacturing activity are raising questions on the effectiveness of current policies. This week’s focus will be the labor market as investors try to gather more clues on the state of the U.S. economy.

US Economic Data Releases:
On Monday (June 30^th), The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity survey came in much softer than expectations at -12.7 vs the expected -10.9. This was improved from last month’s read of -15.3 but nonetheless reflects a softer sentiment around the manufacturing sector. This should affect ISM data on Tuesday which appears to be slightly contractionary and estimated at 48.8.

On Tuesday (July 1^st), Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) data will be released. Economists are predicting additional signs of labor market cooling and a downward revision to last month’s data. It appears employers are slowing their hiring and employees are staying put.

On Wednesday (July 2^nd), Challenger’s job cuts YoY data will be released. Though not a popular release, this will give insights into the industries most affected by the cooling labor market. The tech sector and hospitality sector appear to be among the most affected industries.

On Thursday (July 3^rd) Due to the holiday weekend, Nonfarm payrolls will be released a day early and fewer jobs are expected to be added to June’s report. This month, 110,000 jobs are expected to be added to the economy, down from 139,000 in May. Usual summer-cuts like education were deeper this year and the unemployment rate is expected to ticker slightly higher to 4.4% from 4.3%.

Friday (July 4^th) U.S. Markets are closed in honor of our 249^th year of Independence.

International Data releases:
The United Kingdom’s Q1 GDP was in-line with MoM and YoY readings (0.7% and 1.3%.) This is the strongest growth in a year as business spending and production increased and public spending dropped. The Chinese Caixin manufacturing index will also be released this evening and will be closely watched after the unexpected decline in May to 48.3 (April’s read was 50.4). This will be crucial as the U.S. and China continue to fight over leverage in tariff negotiations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will join his European Central Bank counterpart President Christine Lagarde as well as Brazil Central Bank Governor Roberto Campos Neto for a panel at an ECB forum in Portugal on Tuesday.

Tuesday will also bring Eurozone CPI data. After a surprise 2% read from Germany’s CPI, the prospects of the Eurozone getting closer to their inflation target of 2% is growing. Canada will also be releasing their trade balance report on Thursday. The consensus estimate is -5.900 billion CAD after last month’s -7.140 billion CAD deficit because of significant drops in U.S. imports.

Economic Calendar

Central Bank Announcements