FX Economic Calendar

July 21 – July 25, 2025

Highlights:

Gold prices have risen to their highest level since mid-June as the dollar sold-off. While the greenback is not as weak as the early June lows (and is up 1% for the month), safe-haven assets are back in demand as President Trump continues to berate Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Powell to lower interest rates sparking renewed concern over Fed independence.

Germany is considering joining France’s arm of the EU battalion to shift to more aggressive responses to the tariff negotiations. After coming to the verge of an agreement with 10% baseline tariffs, the Trump administration is attempting to push the number to 15%. In response, the EU, who argues that the trade-deficit is on the American side due to services sold, is researching using an anti-coercion instrument, a tool that allows the EU to restrict trade and investment to other countries engaging in “economic bullying.” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick remains confident a deal will get done before the August 1^st “hard deadline.” Despite this uncertainty, the S&P is still up 5% for the month and trading at 6,337 points. It is a quiet week for U.S. data as the Fed enters its blackout period until July 31^st.

US Economic Data Releases:

On Monday (July 21^st), Conference Boards’ Leading Economic Index declined by 0.3% for June to 98.8 (with a -0.1% revision for May marking no change for that month.) The index, which provides early indications on turning points in the business cycle has seen support due to stock market growth but remains low due to weakened consumer expectations and lower manufacturing orders.

On Tuesday (July 22^st), Richmond Fed Manufacturing index will be released and give some more insights on leading economic predictors. The index remained soft in June and is expected to continue to slip.

On Wednesday (July 23^rd), MBA mortgage applications will be released. This index has been volatile, dropping 10% the second week of July erasing the 9.4% increase from the first week. Applications for refinancing dropped 12% last week marking the sharpest decline in 3 months. The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for June. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of four million homes sold, roughly even with May. Sales of existing homes are near 15-year lows.

On Thursday (July 24^th) U.S. Building Permits will be released. After a 0.2% increase in permits in June, this will be a good supplement to the mortgage applications release as housing affordability remains critically concerning. The south continues to experience growth (+4.4%) though the northeast and west coasts saw -11.4% and -5.1% declines. The Midwest remained flat for the month.

Friday (July 25^th) Durable goods orders will be released. After a 16.4% increase (biggest since 2014), most of the orders seemed to be transportation and there may be more emphasis on the ex-transportation release which was at 0.5% last month.

International Data releases:

Japan and the Euro-zone will release manufacturing data this week as concerns over Tariff exports continue. The Reserve bank of Australia will also be releasing minutes this evening. On Wednesday Fed governor Michelle Bowman will have a fireside chat with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

Economic Calendar

Central Bank Announcements