April 14 – April 18, 2025
Highlights:
Last week we saw significant market action after the "Liberation Day" tariff announcements. Following the announcement, markets responded with what appeared to be a vote of no confidence - simultaneous drops in equities, bonds, and the USD. This price action was driven by large money flows leaving U.S. assets most likely from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. Looking forward, this week, we have some important economic releases, but their significance may be diminished as they correspond to March's data, before tariffs were announced.
US Economic Data Releases:
On Wednesday (Apr 16th), the U.S. Census Bureau will publish the retail sales numbers for the month of March. This release could be important to gauge the impact of uncertainty around tariff policies the Trump administration has been announcing. The current market expectation is for a 1.4% increase while prior reading was 0.2%. Weak retail sales on Wednesday will point to a slowing US economy.
Additionally, Fed Chairman Jay Powell will be speaking at the Economic Club Wednesday afternoon, marking his first public appearance since last week’s sell off. The market will be looking for clues of a possible Fed intervention if market instability becomes persistent.
On Thursday (Apr 17th), the Department of Labor Statistics will publish jobless claims figures. Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 4,000 to 223,000 for the first week of Apr 12th. For the week ending on April 12th, the market expects jobless claims at 225,000. The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is widely expected to cut its key short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 2.25%.
On Friday (Apr 18th), Equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Good Friday.
International Data releases:
This week the ECB and the Bank of Canada will be announcing their rate decisions. Although it’s unlikely we will see surprises, the market will be paying attention to both central banks’ forward guidance as the recent U.S tariffs and possible retaliatory measures from Canada and the EU may affecting inflation expectations.
| Date | Country | Event | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4/14/2025 | Australia | Australia RBA Meeting Minutes | |
| 4/14/2025 | Japan | Industrial Production MoM | Feb |
| 4/14/2025 | Japan | Industrial Production YoY | Feb |
| 4/14/2025 | Japan | Capacity Utilization MoM | Feb |
| 4/14/2025 | United States | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | Mar |
| 4/14/2025 | United States | Fed's Waller Speaks on Economic Outlook | |
| 4/14/2025 | United States | Fed's Harker Speaks on Role of Fed | |
| 4/14/2025 | United Kingdom | BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY | Mar |
| 4/14/2025 | United Kingdom | U.K. Employment Change & Unemployment Rate | Feb |
| 4/14/2025 | United States | Fed's Bostic Speaks in Fireside Chat on Policy | |
| 4/14/2025 | South Korea | Money Supply M2 SA MoM | Feb |
| 4/14/2025 | South Korea | Money Supply L SA MoM | Feb |
| 4/15/2025 | United Kingdom | Jobless Claims Change | Mar |
| 4/15/2025 | France | CPI YoY | Mar F |
| 4/15/2025 | Eurozone | ECB Bank Lending Survey | |
| 4/15/2025 | Eurozone | Industrial Production | Feb |
| 4/15/2025 | Eurozone | Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index | Apr |
| 4/15/2025 | Canada | CPI YoY | Mar |
| 4/15/2025 | United States | Empire Manufacturing | Apr |
| 4/15/2025 | Canada | Consumer Price Index | Mar |
| 4/15/2025 | Mexico | International Reserves Weekly | 11-Apr |
| 4/15/2025 | United States | Fed's Cook Speaks at Alumni Event | |
| 4/15/2025 | China | GDP YoY | 1Q |
| 4/15/2025 | China | Industrial Production | Mar |
| 4/15/2025 | China | Retail Sales | Mar |
| 4/16/2025 | United Kingdom | CPI | Mar |
| 4/16/2025 | Eurozone | ECB Current Account SA | Feb |
| 4/16/2025 | Eurozone | CPI | Mar F |
| 4/16/2025 | United States | MBA Mortgage Applications | 11-Apr |
| 4/16/2025 | South Africa | Retail Sales Constant YoY | Feb |
| 4/16/2025 | United States | Retail Sales Advance | Mar |
| 4/16/2025 | United States | New York Fed Services Business Activity | Apr |
| 4/16/2025 | United States | Industrial Production | Mar |
| 4/16/2025 | United States | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | Mar |
| 4/16/2025 | Canada | Bank of Canada Rate Decision | 16-Apr |
| 4/16/2025 | United States | NAHB Housing Market Index | Apr |
| 4/16/2025 | United States | Business Inventories | Feb |
| 4/16/2025 | United States | Fed's Powell Speaks to Economic Club of Chicago | |
| 4/16/2025 | United States | Fed's Schmid Chats with Fed's Logan on Economy | |
| 4/16/2025 | Australia | Unemployment Rate | Mar |
| 4/16/2025 | Japan | BOJ Board Nakagawa Speech in Gunma | |
| 4/17/2025 | Germany | PPI YoY | Mar |
| 4/17/2025 | Eurozone | ECB Rate decision | 17-Apr |
| 4/17/2025 | United States | Initial Jobless Claims | 12-Apr |
| 4/17/2025 | United States | Housing Starts | Mar |
| 4/17/2025 | United States | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | Apr |
| 4/17/2025 | Canada | Int'l Securities Transactions | Feb |
| 4/17/2025 | United States | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | 12-Apr |
| 4/17/2025 | Eurozone | ECB President Christine Lagarde Holds Press Conference | |
| 4/17/2025 | Japan | Consumer Price Index | Mar |
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