December 21, 2023

Foreign Exchange Commentary

Mid-day Remarks

Noteworthy

  • U.S. Dollar Trades Within Recent Ranges, British Pound Leads Losses on Slowing Inflation

The Japanese yen weakened sharply after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) made no policy move at its latest meeting and gave no hint about near-term changes.

The BoJ decided to maintain short-term interest rates at minus 0.1%, and Gov. Kazuo Ueda said he wanted to see more evidence that Japan is finally having a positive cycle of rising wages and prices.

The yen shed more than 1% Tuesday, trading as weak as 144.68 to the dollar on Tuesday.

Japanese government bonds rallied as the 10-year yield fell to the lowest level since the Bank of Japan’s July tweak.

The Nikkei 225 (stock) index climbed 1.4%.

While many analysts expect the BoJ to end negative interest rates in the first half of next year, Ueda didn’t give any clues on Tuesday.

Ueda said it would be difficult for the BoJ to say "it would raise rates next month" or to show its outlook for short-term rates as the Federal Reserve does, because it could confuse the markets.

Ueda also acknowledged possible Fed rate cuts would affect foreign-exchange rates but said it would be inappropriate for the BoJ to rush a policy change just to preempt the Fed.

The Japanese yen weakened after Ueda said he can’t yet see Bank of Japan hitting 2% inflation goal with certainty.  However, at below 143.84 it was substantially stronger than the 151.78 level it attained on November 14th.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc rose to its highest level versus the U.S. dollar since July 1st.

In contrast, the U.K. pound sterling fell to a three-week low after British inflation slowed.

Consumer-price index

 

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Summary

  • Canadian dollar consolidates near four-month high after CPI unexpectedly rose in November to 3.1% year-over-year versus a 2.9% forecast.
  • Treasuries advance; 10-year yield down 5 basis points to 3.88%; lowest since July.
  • Japanese 10-year government bond yield falls to lowest level since BoJ’s July adjustment.
  • Yen ‘carry-trades’ given extension as BoJ dismisses Fed timetable.
  • Japan investors buy most Treasuries in six months in October.
  • U.S. consumer confidence rises sharply to 110.7; estimate 104.5.
  • Gilts jump, U.K. pound sterling drops to three-week low after British inflation slows.
  • The Swiss franc rose to its strongest level since July 1st.
  • EUR/GBP jump 0.5% to 0.8668, a three-week high.
  • Australian dollar up on outlook for interest rate gap with U.S.
  • U.S. 3rd quarter current account deficit $200.3 billion; estimate $196.0 billion.
  • China’s yuan under-performs Asian peers after steady Loan Prime Rate (LPR).
  • EIA crude +2,909 Bbl, median estimate -2,300 Bbl.

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