October 1 - October 6, 2023 Economic report and policy meetings
October 1
Australia: Judo Bank Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Final – September
Indonesia: Inflation Rate (YoY) – September
Japan: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Summary of Opinions, Tankan Large All Industry Capital Expenditures (Capex) – 3rd Qtr., Tankan Large Manufacturing Index – 3rd Qtr., Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook – 3rd Qtr., Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index – 3rd Qtr.
Russia: S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – September
Switzerland: Retail Sales (YoY) – August
U.K.: Nationwide Housing Prices (YoY) – September
October 2
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision, Building Permits (MoM) Preliminary – August, Home Loans (MoM) – August, Investment Lending for Homes – August
Brazil: Balance of Trade – September
Canada: S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – September
Euro-Zone: HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – September, Unemployment Rate – August, Spain: HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – September, Italy: HCOB Manufacturing PMI – September, Unemployment Rate – August, France: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final – September, Germany: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final – September
India: S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – September
Mexico: Business Confidence – September
Switzerland: procure.ch Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – September, Inflation Rate (YoY) – September
U.K.: S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Final – September
U.S.: Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – September, Construction Spending (MoM) – August, S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Final – September
The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for September. Consensus estimate is for a 48 reading, slightly higher than the August figure. The ISM releases its Services PMI on Wednesday. Expectations are for a 53.5 reading, one point less than in August.
October 3
Australia: Ai Group Industry Index – September, Judo Bank Services Purchasing Managers Index – September
Brazil: Industrial Production (MoM) – August
Euro-Zone: Spain: Unemployment Change – September
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RNBZ) Interest Rate Decision
South Korea: S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - September
U.S.: Johnson Redbook (YoY) – September 30th, JOLTS Job Openings – August, JOLTS Job Quits – August
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August. Economists forecast 8.8 million job openings, roughly even with the July data. Job openings are down 27% from their record peak in March 2022 but remain above historical averages. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said that “although the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed, labor demand still exceeds the supply of available workers.”
October 4
Australia: Balance of Trade – August
Brazil: S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – September
Euro-Zone: HCOB Services PMI Final – September, Retail Sales (YoY) – August, Spain: HCOB Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – September, Italy: HCOB Services PMI – September, France: HCOB Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Final – September, Industrial Production (MoM) – August, Germany: HCOB Services PMI Final – September, Balance of Trade – August, Exports (MoM) - August
Japan: Foreign Bond Investment – September 30
Philippines: Inflation Rate (YoY) – September
Poland: Interest Rate Decision – October
South Korea: Inflation Rate (YoY) – September
U.K.: S&P Global/CIPS Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Final – September
U.S.: Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – September, ISM Services Employment – September, Factory Orders (MoM) – August, S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Final – September, S&P Global Services PMI Final – September, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change – September, MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September 29th), MBA Survey Indexes - Mortgage Market Index, Mortgage Applications (September 29th), Mortgage Market Change, Mortgage Refinance Index, Refinancing Change, MBA Mortgage Approvals (September 29), Department of Energy (DOE) U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (September 29), DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (September 29), DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (September 29), DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (September 29), DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization (September 29), DOE Crude Oil Implied Demand (September 29), Gasoline Implied Demand (September 29), Distillate Implied Demand (September 29), API Crude Oil Stock Change (September 29), EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change – September 29
October 5
Canada: Balance of Trade – August, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) s.a. – September
Euro-Zone: Spain: Consumer Confidence – September, France: Balance of Trade - August
India: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Interest Rate Decision
Japan: Household Spending (YoY) – August, Coincident Index Preliminary – August, Leading Economic Index Preliminary - August
Mexico: Consumer Confidence - September
Philippines: Unemployment Rate – August
Switzerland: Unemployment Rate – September
U.K.: S&P Global/CIPS Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) – September
U.S: Continuing Jobless Claims – September 23, Initial Jobless Claims – September 30, Balance of Trade – August, Exports – August, Imports – August
October 6
Canada: Employment Change – September, Unemployment Rate – September, Average Hourly Wages (YoY) – September, Full Time Employment Change – September
Euro-Zone: Italy: Retail Sales (MoM) - August
U.S.: Non-Farm Payrolls – September, Unemployment Rate – September, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) – September, Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) – September, Average Weekly Hours – September, Nonfarm Payrolls Private – September, Participation Rate – September, Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count – October 6, Federal Reserve’s Waller Speech, Consumer Credit Change – August
The BLS releases the jobs report for September. The consensus call is for non-farm payrolls to increase by 155,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 3.7% from 3.8%. Jobs growth has cooled recently, from the blistering pace of the past two years. The three-month average through August was a gain of roughly 150,000, compared with an average increase of 438,000 a month for the two years through May 2023.
Bold denotes likely market-moving newsflash which traders consider significant to foreign exchange levels or otherwise important/noteworthy information, i.e., market holiday’s which will affect standard settlement dates.
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