November 2019 Florida Economic Outlook

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

,

Daniel Sanabria

Beach

The Florida economy accelerated in the third quarter of 2019.



Florida Economy to See Solid Gains in 2020

    The Florida economy accelerated in the third quarter of 2019. The state added 160,700 jobs in the first three quarters of 2019, about the same pace of hiring seen in 2018. Florida’s labor market is expected to see solid growth again in 2020, spurred by a growing population. Relatively affordable living and a business friendly environment will continue to be beacons for drawing more new residents and businesses to the state. This, in turn, supports demand for housing and consumer spending with local businesses. However, 2020 does not come without any risks for the Florida economy. The state’s tourism industry is more susceptible to dynamics occurring outside of Florida such as a slowdown in U.S. economic activity and weakening consumer sentiment. To date, U.S. consumer spending has been well supported by solid job gains. However, national employment growth has slowed in 2019. A deterioration of the U.S. labor market would lead to cooler income growth, leading to weaker consumer sentiment and lower discretionary spending for travel and entertainment. A slowdown in global demand and uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy are also risk factors for Florida’s export-related industries in 2020. Real state total trade (exports + imports) was down 4.3 percent from February to August. Primary markets for Florida exports which have experienced an economic slowdown in 2019 include Mexico, Germany and China. Mexico and Germany appear to be near or in recession. Also, Florida businesses that import goods from China will still have to contend with tariffs next year. A Phase 1 deal between the U.S. and China, freezing tariffs at current levels, would be a positive development. However, it may be some time before we see existing tariffs rolled back.


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November 12, 2019
Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Comerica Bank

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Daniel Sanabria, Senior Economist at Comerica Bank

Daniel Sanabria

Senior Economist

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