June 2019 U.S. Employment

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.


Daniel Sanabria

$20 notes and a pen on top of paper showing Payroll (cont) and numbers

A net 224,000 payroll jobs were added to the U.S. economy in June, well above consensus expectations which were held in check by a weak May report....

June Job Growth Bounces Back After Weak May

•    Payroll Employment increased by 224,000 net new jobs in June.
•    The Unemployment Rate for June increased to 3.7 percent.
•    Average Hourly Earnings gained 0.2 percent in June and were up 3.1 percent for the year. 
•    The Average Workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours. 

A net 224,000 payroll jobs were added to the U.S. economy in June, well above consensus expectations which were held in check by a weak May report. Together, April and May payrolls were revised down by 11,000 jobs. April now shows a net gain of 216,000 jobs, while May payrolls were up by just 72,000. The three-month moving average through June is +171,000 jobs per month which is still a solid number. The unemployment rate ticked up in June to 3.7 percent, back to the rate first reached in September 2018. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2 percent for the month and are up 3.1 percent over the previous 12 months. Wages are still increasing but they are not accelerating despite the scarcity of available workers. The average workweek was unchanged in June at 34.4 hours. The labor force participation rate of 62.9 percent has been stable over the last year.

The solid June jobs report shows that the U.S. economy still has momentum even though global indicators are cooling. However, we expect the Federal Reserve to proceed with a widely-anticipated 25 basis point rate cut in the fed funds rate at the conclusion of the July 30/31 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Industry numbers were generally positive. Mining and logging gave up just 1,000 jobs in June. Construction added 21,000 jobs for the month, nearly the opposite of what we saw in the ADP Employment Report for June. Manufacturing increased employment by a sizeable 17,000 workers. Wholesale trade employment was little changed for the month. Retail trade shed 5,800 jobs in June. Information services added 2,000 net new jobs, as did financial services. Job growth in professional and business services was strong, with a net gain of 51,000 jobs. Education and healthcare employment was also strong, increasing by 61,000 jobs. Leisure and hospitality added 8,000 jobs in June. Government employment increased by a very strong 33,000 new jobs, most of which came from local government excluding education. 

Market Reaction: U.S. equity markets opened with losses. The 10-Year T-bond yield is up to 2.05 percent. NYMEX crude oil is up to $57.45/barrel. Natural gas futures are up to $2.39/mmbtu.

For a PDF version of this report, please click here: June 2019 U.S. Employment.

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July 5, 2019
Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Comerica Bank

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Daniel Sanabria, Senior Economist at Comerica Bank

Daniel Sanabria

Senior Economist

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