Comerica Bank's Florida Index Moves Higher

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

,

Daniel Sanabria

Miami Florida

Comerica Bank's Florida Economic Activity Index increased in May to a level of 125.4. May's index reading was 17.6 percent above the recent index low...



Comerica Bank’s Florida Economic Activity Index increased in May to a level of 125.4. May’s index reading was 17.6 percent above the recent index low of 106.6 set in June 2020. The index averaged 116.7 in 2020, 6.5 points below the average for all of 2019. April’s index reading was revised to 122.7.

Our Florida Economic Activity Index increased by 2.2 percent in May. The index has posted gains for 10 out of the last 11 months. In May, all nine sub-indexes showed improvement. With the May reading, the Florida Index has now surpassed the pre-pandemic high, indicating a robust recovery for the state’s economy. The limited statewide restrictions last year and access to federal fiscal stimulus for businesses and households helped Florida’s real GDP rally quickly. In Q1, Florida real GDP was just 0.4 percent below the 2019Q4 pre-pandemic high. This means we will likely see a full recovery to the state’s headline real GDP in Q2. However, the economic recovery has not been equal across all sectors. Florida’s housing sector continued to see solid demand for single-family housing, fueled by low mortgage rates and positive demographic trends. Manufacturing activity also saw strong gains in early 2021, although supply chain constraints are a limiting factor this summer. While Florida’s leisure and hospitality sector is recovering, businesses still have a considerable amount of ground to make up in both labor re-uptake and real output. The rollback of social mitigation policy across most of the U.S. this spring resulted in stronger tourism into Florida through June. We expect domestic tourism to provide additional lift to the state economy in Q3 as pent up demand for travel is spent out.



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July 21, 2021
Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Comerica Bank

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Daniel Sanabria, Senior Economist at Comerica Bank

Daniel Sanabria

Senior Economist

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