Comerica Bank’s Florida Index Increases | March 2018

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.


Daniel Sanabria

City skyline of Sarasota, Florida during the day

The Comerica Bank Florida Economic Activity Index increased again in January, now up for the third consecutive month.

Comerica Bank’s Florida Economic Activity Index rose by 0.2 percent in January to a level of 114.3. January’s index reading is 16 points, or 16 percent, above the index cyclical low of 98.5. The index averaged 113.1 in 2017, one and two-fifths points above the average for all of 2016. December’s index reading was revised to 114.0.

The Comerica Bank Florida Economic Activity Index increased again in January, now up for the third consecutive month. The sub-indexes were mixed for the month. Five of the nine sub-indexes were positive in January including nonfarm payroll employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices, and sales tax revenues. The four negative sub-indexes for the month were industrial electricity demand, state total trade, hotel occupancy and total enplanements. We continue to see strength in the Florida labor market. The nonfarm payrolls sub-index for Florida has improved every month since October 2010 with one exception, last September, in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma. Florida unemployment insurance claims have shown some volatility over the last year, but overall claims remain near historical lows. Another important factor for the state economy is population growth. Positive labor market conditions are pulling prospective workers into the state. Also, Florida remains a top retirement destination amongst baby boomers. According to the Census Bureau, both the Orlando–Kissimmee-Sanford and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metropolitan areas were amongst the top 10 U.S. major metropolitan areas for population growth in 2017. We expect to see ongoing population growth this year, leading to sustained demand for housing and consumer goods and services.

For a PDF version of this report click here: FL-Index-0318.

The articles and opinions in this publication are for general information only, are subject to change, and are not intended to provide specific investment, legal, tax or other advice or recommendations. The information contained herein reflects the thoughts and opinions of the noted authors only, and such information does not necessarily reflect the thoughts and opinions of Comerica or its management team. We are not offering or soliciting any transaction based on this information. We suggest that you consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your situation. Although the information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, neither the authors nor Comerica guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. Neither the authors nor Comerica shall be liable for any typographical errors or incorrect data obtained from reliable sources or factual information.

March 28, 2018
Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Comerica Bank

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Daniel Sanabria, Senior Economist at Comerica Bank

Daniel Sanabria

Senior Economist

Related Content