Comerica Bank's Florida Index Increases | June 2018

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

,

Daniel Sanabria

A high rise building next to a beach

Comerica Bank’s Florida Economic Activity Index increased by 0.1 points in April to a level of 114.4.



Comerica Bank’s Florida Index Increases Comerica Bank’s Florida Economic Activity Index increased by 0.1 points in April to a level of 114.4. April’s index reading is 16 points, or 16 percent, above the index cyclical low of 98.5. The index averaged 113.1 in 2017, one and two-fifths points above the average for all of 2016. March’s index reading was 114.3.

The Comerica Bank Florida Economic Activity Index improved in April following a three-month leveling-off from January through March. Six of the nine components were positive in April including nonfarm payroll employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices, sales tax revenues and total enplanements. Miami area house prices are up 5.0 percent for April, compared to a year earlier. Tampa prices are up 7.2 percent.  The three negative components for the month were industrial electricity sales, total state trade and hotel occupancy. April’s Florida Index reading is consistent with an ongoing moderate expansion for the Florida economy. Underpinning recent growth for Florida has been consistent job growth after the disruption from Hurricane Irma last fall. The area of the state economy that has shown weakness in recent months is total state trade (exports plus imports). The nominal value of Florida total trade is about 14 percent of nominal state gross domestic product. NAFTA trade, Mexico and Canada combined, is the largest trading destination for Florida, followed by China and Brazil. Beyond trade, Florida’s housing and tourism industries also have ties to international markets. Slower growth in other economies or an increase in the value of the U.S. dollar due to recently announced tariffs could impact these industries. Moderate-to-strong growth in the U.S. economy will be a positive for the Florida for the rest of 2018.

 

For a PDF version of this article, please click here: Florida Index June 2018



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June 27, 2018
Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Comerica Bank

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Daniel Sanabria, Senior Economist at Comerica Bank

Daniel Sanabria

Senior Economist

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