Comerica Bank’s Florida Economic Activity Index increased in November to a level of 109.3. November’s index reading was 11 percent above the index historical low of 98.5. The index averaged 115.9 in 2019, 1.0 point above the average for all of 2018. October’s index reading was revised to 108.3.
Our Florida Economic Activity Index improved again in November, now rising for the fifth consecutive month. The index components were generally positive in November. Seven of the nine components gained for the month including nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices, state total trade, state sales tax revenues and total enplanements. Industrial electricity demand and hotel occupancy moved lower in November. Florida’s economic recovery remained on course through year-end, albeit at a slower pace. Florida employment growth, a fundamental driver of the state’s economy, remained strong in December as a net 16,800 payroll jobs were added. This is positive news given the U.S. as a whole saw a net 140,000 jobs lost in December. Florida also saw a tick up in travel into the state. While hotel occupancy has essentially remained flat since September, total enplanements continued to rise through November. The move to stricter social mitigation policies across some U.S. states and regional governments and an extension of the travel ban from key markets outside of the U.S. will be a limiting factor for Florida’s tourism related sectors in the near term. However, additional federal fiscal stimulus supporting businesses and households, along with the expansion of vaccine rollout, sets the Florida economy up for stronger activity in the second half of 2021.
