Comerica Bank's Arizona Index Up Again

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

,

Daniel Sanabria

Skyline of a city in the day time with trees in the foreground

Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index increased by 0.3 percent in September to a level of 113.0.



Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index increased by 0.3 percent in September to a level of 113.0. September’s index reading is 13 points, or 13 percent, above the index cyclical low of 99.5. The index averaged 111.1 points for all of 2017, one point above the average for 2016. The August index reading was 112.7.

The Comerica Bank Arizona Economic Activity Index was up by a moderate 0.3 percent in September, showing continued momentum in the Arizona economy. Eight of the nine indicators were positive for the month, with the ninth indicator remaining unchanged. This was the first time without a negative sub-index reading since October 2017, nearly a year ago. The positive indicators were nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices, industrial electricity demand, hotel occupancy, state sales tax revenue, and enplanements, while total state trade was unchanged for the month. Although the resolution of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, which remains to be ratified by each country, has removed some uncertainty for Arizona businesses, significant trade-based risk remains in place for the state’s economy. Recent tensions at the U.S.-Mexico border have added some anxiety to the Arizona business community. Arizona’s largest trade partner is Mexico, accounting for 36 percent, or $7.6 billion, of the state’s export purchases in 2017. Meanwhile, our 5 State Index graph on this page shows flattening state indexes for Texas, California, and Michigan, all sizeable states with significant industrial bases. This should be taken as a cautionary sign for the overall U.S. economy at the end of 2018.

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November 28, 2018
Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Comerica Bank

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Daniel Sanabria, Senior Economist at Comerica Bank

Daniel Sanabria

Senior Economist

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