August 2019 Florida Economic Outlook

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.


Daniel Sanabria

City of Sarasota, Florida during the day

The Florida economy continued to expand at a solid pace in the first half of 2019.

Florida Economic Outlook Remains Positive

    The Florida economy continued to expand at a solid pace in the first half of 2019. Job growth rebounded in the second quarter, helping to allay concerns about a slowdown in the pace of hiring in Florida in Q1. We still expect job growth to moderate further in 2019, but at a much more gradual rate than what we saw at the beginning of the year. A tight labor market is limiting the ability of some Florida businesses to expand. Florida real gross domestic product is still on track to increase by near 3 percent this year. The state continues to see positive migration flows which increase demand for goods and services, including housing. Anecdotes support the idea that restrictions on state and local tax deductions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (which went into effect in early 2018) are leading to an exodus of property owners from high tax states, like New York and New Jersey, into Florida. However, we will not know if this trend is significantly different than past migration patterns until we see it in the data. We will get the 2018 one-year net-migration estimate in November. So far, the housing data available does not show an upside breakout in Florida housing activity this year. According to Florida Realtors, single-family home sales were up 2.1 percent and townhouse and condo sales were down 4.0 percent year-to-date in June compared to the same time period last year. Lower mortgage rates will provide additional support to Florida housing activity in the second half of the year. Domestic travel into Florida continues to see positive year-over-year gains, supporting the state’s vital tourism industry. Universal recently announced that it plans to open a new theme park in Central Florida. The exact timeframe for the project remains unclear.

For a PDF version of this publication, click here: August 2019 Florida Economic Outlook.

The articles and opinions in this publication are for general information only, are subject to change, and are not intended to provide specific investment, legal, tax or other advice or recommendations. The information contained herein reflects the thoughts and opinions of the noted authors only, and such information does not necessarily reflect the thoughts and opinions of Comerica or its management team. We are not offering or soliciting any transaction based on this information. We suggest that you consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your situation. Although the information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, neither the authors nor Comerica guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. Neither the authors nor Comerica shall be liable for any typographical errors or incorrect data obtained from reliable sources or factual information.

August 7, 2019
Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Comerica Bank

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Daniel Sanabria, Senior Economist at Comerica Bank

Daniel Sanabria

Senior Economist

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