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Arizona’s economy is expected to improve through 2019. This outlook is largely supported by the state’s continued population and job growth.



February 2019 AZ Economic Outlook

February 11, 2019
By Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Daniel Sanabria

Arizona Economy to Remain Strong in 2019

Arizona’s economy is expected to improve through 2019. This outlook is largely supported by the state’s continued population and job growth. Net migration into Arizona is expected to continue at a moderate pace. The state’s comparative affordability is a significant draw for businesses and consumers alike, especially when compared with neighboring high-cost California. Although we expect Arizona’s momentum to cool in time, especially as real estate conditions tighten, we forecast Arizona’s real gross domestic product growth to remain above the U.S. average through 2019 and well into 2020. Mid-year population estimates recently released by the Census Bureau show Arizona's headcount at just under 7.2 million as of July 1, 2018, reflecting 122,770 new residents, or a 1.7 percent year-over-year increase. Only Texas, California, and Florida, the country’s three most populous states, have added more people over the same period. While economic growth in Arizona has been strong in recent years, it has not come without its share of growing pains, particularly with regard to the state’s strained educational system and infrastructure. To accommodate the influx of new arrivals to the state, Arizona has committed to improving many of its roadways, including nearly $200 million over the next three years to significantly expand Interstate 17, the Phoenix metro area’s primary north-south freeway. Along with the state’s improving housing market, infrastructure projects like these will contribute to another year of strong construction activity and employment in Arizona, and add to overall job growth.

For a PDF version of this report, click here: February 2019 AZ Economic Outlook

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