Landscape Image [Size 960 x 300]


Portrait Image [Size 620 x 415]


Short Description (Double click to edit..)

Comerica Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index increased by 0.1 points in October to 135.8.

Comerica Bank's Texas Index Up Slightly

January 3, 2019
By Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Daniel Sanabria

Comerica Bank’s Texas Economic Activity Index increased by 0.1 points in October to 135.8. October’s index reading is 40 points, or 42 percent, above the index cyclical low of 95.5. The index averaged 128.5 points for all of 2017, 4.2 points above the average for 2016. September’s index reading was 135.7.

The Comerica Bank Texas Economic Activity Index increased slightly in October, following a small increase in September. The two-month gain in our headline index  for Texas reverses a slight two-month decline over July and August. In October, six out of nine sub-indexes were positive. They were non-farm payrolls, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), house prices, industrial electricity demand, state trade and sales tax revenue. The three negative sub-indexes were housing starts, rig count and hotel occupancy. Lower oil prices are weighing on oil producers’ plans for 2019. The Texas state rig count dipped from August through October. We expect to see further declines in the rig count into early 2019. Oil producers are paring back planned expenditures for 2019 and some drillers have canceled orders for new rigs. Cooler oil field activity in early 2019 will be a moderate weight on the overall state economy. The potential for cooler U.S. and international economic growth in 2019 completes the triple threat to the Texas economy this year. The good news is that Texas is still attracting new business and new people from outside the state. The momentum in the non-energy part of the Texas economy, which is by far the biggest part of the state economy, is significant and will keep the overall state economy expanding through early 2019.

For a PDF version of this report, click here:  Comerica Bank's Texas Index Up Slightly

The articles and opinions in this publication are for general information only, are subject to change, and are not intended to provide specific investment, legal, tax or other advice or recommendations.  The information contained herein reflects the thoughts and opinions of the noted authors only, and such information does not necessarily reflect the thoughts and opinions of Comerica or its management team.  We are not offering or soliciting any transaction based on this information.  We suggest that you consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your situation.  Although information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, neither the authors nor Comerica guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed.  Neither the authors nor Comerica shall be liable for any typographical errors or incorrect data obtained from reliable sources or factual information.