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Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index decreased by 0.2 percent in November to a level of 118.7.

Comerica Bank's Michigan Index Ticks Down

January 31, 2019
By Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Daniel Sanabria

Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index decreased by 0.2 percent in November to a level of 118.7. November’s reading is 21 points, or 21 percent, above the index cyclical low of 97.9. The index averaged 118.2 points for all of 2017, one point above the index average for 2016. October’s index reading was 118.9.

Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index decreased in November. Since last June, our Michigan Index has increased in just one month, October. Over the 12 months ending in November our Michigan Index is up by only 0.3 percent. Both those measures show that the state economy lost momentum through the second half of 2018. Some state-level data was not available this month due to the partial federal government shutdown. We included our own estimates for housing starts and for total state trade for the month of November so that we could publish our headline index this month. Data for the other seven index components was collected and processed normally. In November, three out of nine index components were positive. They were nonfarm payrolls, housing starts and house prices. Negative components were unemployment insurance claims (inverted), industrial electricity demand, light vehicle production, total state trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenues. A cooler U.S. and global economy this year will have an impact on Michigan’s export sector, including auto production and associated manufacturing. A noticeable drop in Consumer Confidence through December and January is further bad news for the Michigan auto industry. The now-ended partial federal government shutdown will not have a significant impact on the Michigan Index for January.

For a PDF version of this report, click here: Comerica Bank’s Michigan Index Ticks Down

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