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Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index was unchanged in September at a level of 118.1.



Comerica Bank's Michigan Index Unchanged

November 28, 2018
By Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Daniel Sanabria

Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index was unchanged in September at a level of 118.1. September’s reading is 20 points, or 21 percent, above the index cyclical low of 97.9. The index averaged 118.2 points for all of 2017, one point above the index average for 2016. August’s index reading was 118.1.

Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index was unchanged in September after easing for each of the three prior months. Recent negatives have been broad-based, but offset by ongoing state job growth. For the year ending in October, Michigan payrolls are still up 1.4 percent. However, we expect that year-over-year gain in payrolls to decrease as we finish out 2018 and turn into 2019. State job growth and auto production will both be challenged in the years ahead after General Motors announced the closure of 5 plants in the U.S. and Canada in 2019, including the Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant and the Warren, Michigan transmission plant. A total of nearly 15,000 workers will be laid off due to the five plant closures. In September, five Michigan Index components were positive. They were nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices and auto production. Industrial electricity demand, hotel occupancy and state sales tax revenues were negatives in September for Michigan, while total state trade was unchanged. Our 5 State Index graph on this page shows flattening state indexes for Texas, California and Michigan, all sizeable states with significant industrial bases. This should be taken as a cautionary sign for the overall U.S. economy at the end of 2018.

For a PDF version of this report, click here: Comerica Bank's Michigan Index Unchanged

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