Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in March to a level of 118.6. March’s reading is 21 points, or 21 percent, above the index cyclical low of 97.9. The index averaged 118.1 points for all of 2017, nine-tenths of a point above the index average for 2016. February’s index reading was 118.3.
Comerica Bank’s Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in March after a slight decline in February. The sub-indexes were mixed, with more up than down for the month. Seven out of nine index components were positive in March including nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices, industrial electricity consumption, auto and light truck production and hotel occupancy. The two negative index components were total state trade and state sales tax revenues. Since March 2017, our Michigan Index has been positive six times, negative four times and moved sideways twice. Following the slump in Michigan economic activity in the first half of 2017, steady gains in the state’s economy were supported by consistent job growth from October through March. However, the preliminary read for April showed Michigan actually lost 10,000 jobs for the month. As we move further past peak auto sales, the pace of hiring in Michigan’s manufacturing sector continues to moderate. Auto production is expected to eventually tick down back to levels seen prior to last year’s hurricanes, which gave a temporary boost to sales and production. International trade negotiations remain in flux and could exert a significant impact on the Michigan economy, with both winners and losers. The state’s services sector is healthy and will continue to expand this year.
Michigan Economic Activity Index
The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, to-tal trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been convert-ed to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with one of the largest banking center networks in Michigan, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and help-ing people and businesses be successful. In addition to Michigan and Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, and Florida, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexi-co.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter: @Comerica_Econ.
For a PDF version of this report click here: Comerica Michigan Index
The articles and opinions in this publication are for general information only, are subject to change, and are not intended to provide specific investment, legal, tax or other advice or recommendations. The information contained herein reflects the thoughts and opinions of the noted authors only, and such information does not necessarily reflect the thoughts and opinions of Comerica or its management team. We are not offering or soliciting any transaction based on this information. We suggest that you consult your attorney, accountant or tax or financial advisor with regard to your situation. Although information has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, neither the authors nor Comerica guarantee its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. Neither the authors nor Comerica shall be liable for any typographical errors or incorrect data obtained from reliable sources or factual information.