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Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index increased by 0.3 percent in November to a level of 113.7.

Comerica Bank's Arizona Index Climbs Again

January 31, 2019
By Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Daniel Sanabria

Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index increased by 0.3 percent in November to a level of 113.7. November’s index reading is 14 points, or 14 percent, above the index cyclical low of 99.5. The index averaged 111.1 points for all of 2017, one point above the average for 2016. The October index reading was 113.4.

The Comerica Bank Arizona Economic Activity Index was up again by a moderate 0.3 percent in November, showing continued momentum in the Arizona economy with its fourth consecutive gain. Please note that both housing starts and total trade were estimated for the month of November. The U.S. Census has delayed the release of these data points due to the now-ended federal government shutdown. Seven of the nine indicators were positive for November, including nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), house prices, industrial electricity demand, hotel occupancy, state sales tax revenue and enplanements. Only housing starts and state total trade posted a decline for the month. Mid-year population estimates released by the Census Bureau last month show Arizona's headcount at 7,171,646, as of July 1, 2018. That's good for 122,770 new residents, or a 1.7 percent year-over-year increase. Only Texas, California, and Florida added more people over the same period. A handful of western states, Nevada, Idaho, and Utah, posted higher year-over-year growth rates. Arizona’s unemployment rate remains elevated at 4.8 percent in December. That comes despite having recorded a 3.4 percent year-over-year gain in payrolls, the strongest year for employment growth in Arizona since 2006, at the height of the U.S. housing bubble.

For a PDF version of this report, click here: Comerica Bank’s Arizona Index Climbs Again

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