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Comerica Bank’s Arizona Index Gains Momentum

January 26, 2016
By Kyle Grace

Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index grew in November, increasing 0.9 percentage points to a level of 108.5. November’s index reading is 32 points, or 41 percent, above the index cyclical low of 77.0. The index averaged 99.7 points for all of 2014, four and one-fifth points above the average for full-year 2013. October’s index reading was 107.6.

“Our Arizona Economic Activity Index increased in November for the third consecutive month. Index components show a broad base of support with seven out of eight components either increasing or staying the same. Only state exports decreased, similar to a pattern seen in other states. We suspect that the strong dollar is an increasing headwind for most states. However, improving conditions for U.S. households are a major support to destination economies, including those in Arizona. Solid U.S. job gains, moderate-to-strong house price growth and low energy prices are combining to boost seasonal tourism,” said Robert Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. “We look for ongoing gains for Arizona in 2016, boosted by leisure and hospitality industries and by residential construction.”

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For a PDF version of the Arizona Economic Activity Index click here: ArizonaIndex_0116.