Comerica Bank's Arizona Index Ticks Higher

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

,

Daniel Sanabria

Scottsdale Arizona

Comerica Bank's Arizona Economic Activity Index increased in May to a level of 124.0. May's reading is 14.5 percent above the recent low...



Comerica Bank’s Arizona Economic Activity Index increased in May to a level of 124.0. May’s index reading is 14.5 percent above the recent low of 108.3 set in June 2020. The index averaged 115.9 for all of 2020, 4.0 points below the average for 2019. April’s index reading was unrevised at 121.8.

Our Arizona Economic Activity Index rose by 1.8 percent in May after a similar gain in April. The headline index has now risen for 11 consecutive months. Seven of the nine sub-indexes improved in May. They were nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), house prices, state total trade, hotel occupancy, taxable sales and total enplanements. Housing starts and industrial electricity sales fell for the month. With the May reading, the Arizona Index is now 1.6 percent higher than the pre-pandemic high. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis also showed Arizona real GDP surpassed its pre-pandemic peak in Q1. The state has experienced a much more rapid labor market recovery than the overall U.S. As of June, Arizona has regained 87 percent of the net jobs lost in Spring 2020, compared to the national average of 70 percent. The vast majority of the remaining outstanding Arizona job losses reside in the leisure and hospitality sector. However, we are seeing strong improvements for businesses in this sector as domestic travel into the state picks up this summer. The U.S. announced that it will continue to restrict non-essential travel at all land border crossings through August 21 as the Delta variant sparks an uptick in COVID cases. International traffic at the southern border will likely be subdued for the remainder of the year.



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July 21, 2021
Robert A. Dye, Ph.D., Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Comerica Bank

Robert A. Dye, Ph.D.

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Daniel Sanabria, Senior Economist at Comerica Bank

Daniel Sanabria

Senior Economist

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